Munitions Value Chain — Layer Map

Read this bottom-up. Demand enters at the primes and flows down into layers that cannot expand at the same rate. The layers marked as binding are the ones where money is provably not the constraint.

Binding constraint — cannot be relieved with capital alone

Tight — long qualification, expanding slowly

Monopoly chokepoint (21-25)

Duopoly chokepoint (16-20)

Private / not investable

The structural point. Every relieved bottleneck exposes the next one down. Japan can double PAC-3 output from ~30 to ~60 a year — but only once Boeing-built seekers stop being the limit. The US can fund solid rocket motor capacity — but the motors need ammonium perchlorate, and one company makes it at scale. That is why this map is ordered by replaceability rather than by revenue: the investable edge sits at the layers where substitution takes years, not quarters.

Sources. Company releases (Lockheed, L3Harris, Northrop, NewMarket), CRS FY2027 weapon-systems report, CSIS solid rocket motor and industrial-base analyses, Breaking Defense, and trade press. Full list in value-chain.md. Chokepoint scores are analyst judgement, not sourced data.